TheRealityCheckmate_E05_2026-02-23

[00:00:00]

Intro

Voiceover: This is the Reality Checkmate podcast.

Garrett: Currently just one reality nerd who likes to break down strategy and psyche.

Welcome back. We're here to talk about the next episode of the Traitors US season 4, episode 4, titled, "Cut the Head Off the Snake" .

By way of reminder, my predictions from last time were that Lisa would be banished next, that Candiace was the one who said Lisa's name. I was super wrong on both of those counts there.

But I did also predict that Caroline would be murdered ... and I was right! Uh, it only gets messier from here.

So this episode is a masterclass in how to lose control of the narrative. So let's get started.

The Breakfast Grill

Garrett: After getting some teasers about who the traitors may have murdered. We started breakfast with [00:01:00] people starting to come in.

Rob is one of the first people and we get a confessional from him talking about how he needs to think of himself in his head as a faithful. This is so smart to do and would be one of the hardest parts about being a traitor so that you don't give yourself away. It's very important to do all the time, so as not to, you know, unintentionally

incriminate yourself. I don't know if the others are doing that as well. Hopefully they are so they can keep going for a longer time. Then we get Monét who also incredibly great for a faithful talks about how we need to gather intel about how it all went down the previous night with the face-to-face murder to make sure that stories line up.

This, of course, would only work if one of the people on the tree was a traitor or was one of the people who was going to be on the tree was a traitor, which of course, Lisa [00:02:00] was. But still it does make sense regardless to see if there's any discrepancies in their stories. We get a little aside from Candiace about how she doesn't think they left any clues, which we'll also get to later, as they may have actually left a few. And I think the traitors were a little shocked that they may have been caught. They will certainly be more careful in the future.

Ron is the first of them to come in and get, and he gets grilled, of course. M any still believe he's a traitor. And so they're wanting to see him crack or give away something, anything with a whiff of guilt. He gives some very generic details, unfortunately for him. We also get a confessional where he mentions that he heard very light footsteps. So he suspects Maura. Good for him trying to get any clue he could during this whole thing.

He doesn't [00:03:00] seem to consider that those footsteps might just be the traitors trying to be very careful or really any other of the small and light people on the cast.

Michael shares that his plan is to be chill today. Uh, so he's not going to be saying a lot and we don't actually get a lot of him -- could be editing -- but we don't get a lot of him t his episode. But maybe he's actually learned a lesson after everything happened yesterday.

Based on her initial reaction to getting grilled, I don't think Lisa was prepared that it might happen. Much, I'm sure to Rob's chagrin. She says she needs to take a second to get tea or water, which in traitor's speak means I need five seconds to download my alibi.

She knew about the black masks, s o she corroborates what Ron had said. She was very dramatic in her telling. She said something about an ax and Ron didn't. So now people are thinking, well, Ron should [00:04:00] have noticed something like that. And he hadn't said anything about it specifically. So of course putting a emphasis on him.

And next Eric comes in. He also mentions the ax. So I'm thinking, poor Ron. Eric thinks that there were only two traitors, though, which is interesting in his, and nobody seemed to bat an eye at as the discrepancy there. In his confessional, he talks about hearing a laugh and thinks that person may be a traitor, and he'll be watching that person specifically today.

Maybe his odd words from last time were meant to elicit this kind of response. So he could try to hear something like that. In which case I am in awe, like, wow, great way to do it. It, that is a great way to get a reaction, to get sign a, some kind of clue. So hopefully he did it on purpose.

And also good for him to not bring it up in this moment as he continues to look for clues. I would've loved to get [00:05:00] playback of that laugh though, and be able to compare against each of the traitors. We get some laughing like then, but not from the previous night. And maybe he just imagined the laughing.

Maybe it didn't come from any of the traitors. I don't know. Unfortunately, you know, we just don't get any of that evidence or any of his evidence for additional clues or reasons why he thinks it is who it is. Because the laugh is really all he goes with at the round table, so that's not so good.

The last one in is Kristen. Which of course means that Caroline was murdered. She was Colton's partner in the game from the previous day. So I wonder if that will hurt his game now or in the future. Currently it doesn't look like it will end up hurting him. Now after we know Kristen is safe, we get to see the face-to-face murder with Caroline. She was pretty shocked saying things like, "Rinna, you bitch", and "Why me out of all the others?". Candiace replied with, "You talk too [00:06:00] much". Lisa was like, "Too bad, too bad". And I was going, whoa, this is mean. I don't watch the housewives shows much. But this seemed overly antagonistic for someone who was leaving the [Traitors] show. I don't know their history ... It seemed personal rather than more about the strategy. Did they create this interaction for the show? For the drama of it? Or did they just want to handle it this way on purpose? And then I laughed when Caroline said, "I'll see you out of this, like at Bravo-con."

And Lisa was like, "No, you won't." And I was thinking, really? Why is that? Why do you say that? Again, it just seemed like she was being, or they were being mean just to be mean, not for any reason. Did love Caroline saying in her confessional that only a housewife could look you straight in the eye and stab you in the back. So I do have those shows on my watch list. I'll have to get to them next. It does sound crazy.

All right. Then we [00:07:00] get back to breakfast and Alan comes in and announces what the game will be. Everybody is saying, I thought--Never thought Caroline was a traitor. So good move for the traitors here to get rid of her for that reason as well a s the other reasons they'd given the previous night. Alan doesn't give much of a clue about who the traitors were. Or maybe why they chose her except perhaps his line about "snatched like a housewife's jawline". But that would be a stretch, I think to tie it to, you know, the, the two housewives who are the traitors, since it also points to Caroline herself.

Finally, after all of that, everybody grills Kristen. She says she thinks there were three or four traitors. Yam Yam asked her, how long the "ceremony" lasted. And she says like forever. But his word choice there perks up Tiffany's ears and thinks that him saying that means he's a traitor. And I commend [00:08:00] her for listening to people's words and trying to pick out clues from those. But why is that one phrase such a big indicator for her? She's obviously already has this, uh, supposition that he is a traitor, and so every little thing is just adding to it. But it does seem, "ceremony" the word seems fairly innocuous doesn't really tie him to being there. To me, it seems more like if you weren't there, it would seem like it might've been some sort of ceremonial thing just based on seeing past seasons of the show as well.

So in addition to Yam Yam we know she's also suspicious of Ron and Michael. She doesn't really, she says lead the charge against them, but she wants to lead others to get there. That could be a good strategy in general. You don't wanna push too hard in these kind of situations 'cause we've seen that hurt people's games. Even, you know, Donna before and others from [00:09:00] past seasons.

When everybody separates in their little groups and talk. And Tiffany, she leads out with, "Are we all voting for Ron tonight?" People seem to be in agreement on it, but, I was wondering where her leading people to the decision was in all of that. How is she not leading a charge here?

But then Colton in his little group talked about how he wants to take a big shot tonight, a big swing. And this is going at Tiffany. His reasoning is that she's too controlling with her decision to get out Yam Yam, Ron, and Michael in that order. It seemed to be based off control and not suspicions, he says. I don't really know what that means to him. Don't understand his argument here but that is his reasoning. If there are four traitors and her putting out the names of all three other traitors that just seems really, really dumb for someone to do. [00:10:00] Any traitor who did that would not, of course, be working with the other traitors, would instead get their own name thrown out. So yeah, while her plan might be the actions of someone trying to be in control of the other traitors, to me it just seems like someone who likes to take control. Et tu, Colton?

Also, in the drive to the mission, Tiffany is putting all three names out there for people. Again, maybe not the best to lead people to make a decision, but at least addressing her potential to play favorites with Michael from the previous ... as I talked about previously ... how that might come back to hurt her.

But in two of the other five cars or four, I guess if we don't count hers, are talking about Tiffany being the one that they want to vote for and her being a traitor. So that's a pretty significant amount of other cars. We don't really get an edit, or see or hear what the [00:11:00] others people in the remaining cars talk about. So we don't know theirs, but it is still a lot of people. And she does not seem to be aware of it.

Shield Math: Everyone’s Bad at It

Garrett: Let's get to the mission. We learned that up to 10 players wi ll be up for murder that evening. Monét is suspicious of Lisa ... tells Candiace, but nobody else is around to hear it. We will get to that again at the end of this episode, but Monét ends up being in a group with Lisa, Candiace and Eric. The second group is Kristen, Mark, and Colton. Third group is Maura, Rob, Tara, and Dorinda. And the fourth group is Stephen, Natalie, and Michael. And then we have the fifth group, Johnny, Ron, Tiffany, and Yam Yam. The groupings are interesting, but so are also the interactions between the groups. And that's what I wanna break down today. First, I noticed that Kristen, [00:12:00] Mark, and Colton Group, the second group, were really strong. They returned first, but also made it back two other times when the other groups made it back twice if they were lucky. Monét and Lisa's group returned second, but didn't make it back again. They must have run out of energy. Didn't have enough breakfast. I don't know what was going on there. It is curious, especially though since Candiace and Lisa were in that group and weren't worried about being vulnerable for murder. I'm sure if I was a faithful I would be looking for these kinds of things from other groups, other players as hints.

During the Mission, Group 2 talks about not wanting traitors having shields, so they choose Ron. This seems like a reasonable strategy, but there are two ways to play this, right? Either you block suspects from getting one, or you let them take one so you can evaluate other people as potential traitors.[00:13:00]

Both could be valid ways of playing, but how do you decide quickly? Choosing to keep one because they might be a traitor, seems wasteful to me. Choosing to keep obvious, faithful safe would be a much better strategy while still keeping it out of their hands. Regardless of your strategy, the group up for murder do give you data points for potential traitors as those who are murdered were obviously faithful and the rest might be traitors. But what are your thoughts on this strategy? Is there a better choice here? At some point, strategy stops being strategy and starts being Sudoku with anxiety. Anyway, let's move on.

Group one arrived second, and they are considering Tiffany or Michael. They end up choosing Tiffany with the same reason as the previous group, but given that her name is out there for banishment, aren't they taking away a shield from a potential faithful? Of [00:14:00] course Lisa and Candiace are in this group, so they don't care either way. But also if you are more sure about Michael being a traitor, then you might wanna keep the shield from him, especially with his previous hissy fit about not getting to state his case for getting one.

Group five is next back and includes Tiffany, who's not excited to hear that her namewas just chosen. So she decides to choose one of that group and she chooses Monét. In a kind of tit for tat revenge move. I did not expect that from Tiffany. There's obviously emotion going on here and we'll talk more about emotion at the round table.

Okay, next group, number three, comes back. Rob suggests Michael and everybody's okay with that. And you know, the same old reasoning. Rob at least points out that because he is in hot water, he probably doesn't need to worry about being murdered.

The next group comes back, number four which [00:15:00] includes Michael. He's mad, but shockingly not outrageously so. However, this is belied some by his choice of Tara who was on the previous team. We don't get a reason from him for that. He does keep shouting her name, which was funny. At least he is playing it a little cooler among his teammates.

The next to come back is team three, so a very quick turnaround for them, and Tara immediately knows that she was picked. So Maura gets a ride from Rob on the way back, which was also hilarious, and also Alan's comment about it. Anyway, they let Tara pick and she chooses Stephen, who was in the group who just put her name out, so more retaliation instead of strategy. But she does say that she doesn't think the traitors will murder him without any other explanation.

The next group is again, group two. Colton says to choose Lisa because nobody's suspecting her, [00:16:00] she survived last night's murder, and he doesn't have an alliance with her. Those are good strategic reasons I think. Better than not-letting-a-traitor-have-a-shield reasoning, for sure. And by his not having an alliance with her, it doesn't also put any extra heat back on himself. So I've been a little critical of Colton in the past and will be in the future. But this I thought was a solid choice for who to take away a shield from.

Okay, next we get group number five. They come back and Ron chooses Maura to see if she gets saved. So a similar reason as others have given for not letting the traitors have a shield and to narrow people down. I ... maybe I didn't mention before ... He thinks the little steps were Maura's -- the ones he heard. we'll see if he brings this up next episode about, you know, Maura being vulnerable, but then not getting murdered, or at [00:17:00] least we assume she's not gonna get murdered.

All right. Then the next group, number four, comes back. Stephen asks, who has not been up for murder? And I liked that thinking. Nice way to start narrowing the field and seeing who does and doesn't get murdered. Michael says that Johnny hasn't been up for murder.

And, and then finally group two again is the last back. They say they are worried that everyone will know who they chose, but that it won't be a secret. But I don't know that many of the choices have been very secretive. Anyway, there are only really a few left to choose from anyway. Mark narrows it down to Yam Yam or Dorinda. Colton r easons that Yam Yam is safe for murder because there's a lot of heat on him. And Mark buys that and decides on Yam Yam, who does get emotional about losing out on a shield. While some players interpret it as acting, there has been a lot of emotion this whole day. So it's not really out of nowhere.

All right. So the ones who are [00:18:00] safe, interestingly, are Candiace and Rob, two of our traitors. So the players seem to have done the opposite of what they strategically intended. And then we have Eric and Kristen. Also safe are Dorinda, Natalie, Mark, and Colton, who of course was worried that he might be up because he is such a big, big name. I'm a little surprised that other groups didn't put him up because of his aggressive play being a "Traitor hunter" is paying off for him it seems. Of course Rob wouldn't want to go against him since they're allies and Colton is a bit of a shield for him. Maura is not happy when she later learns that Ron picked her name and after everyone gets back to the house, Natalie is trying to get a read on Ron by asking him if he's a traitor, and gauging his response.

Candiace does try to defend Tiffany and talks about Colton doing the thing that Ron did to get Porsha [00:19:00] out. I think it's kind of good to throw that out as suspicion. It goes on Colton when he is wrong in the future. I don't exactly know why she is at this point trying to protect Tiffany. Seems like sticking her neck out a little bit like that as the traitor would come back and hurt her. Ron is around when they're talking, so maybe that's affecting her strategy here. But it is interesting to compare how she points to Colton here, but does it differently at round table.

Roundtable -- No Laughing Matter

Garrett: So let's get to round table. Tiffany gives us a confessional about how she can't lead the charge again because they get you in trouble. I think after tonight we learn that either way can get you in trouble.

So the first to speak is Colton to Tiffany. He lays out his evidence. Tiffany gets very defensive. She does eventually point out that she knows she's not reacting well. She's taking it personally because she needs the money. This is [00:20:00] classic playing not to lose, playing out of fear. Not a great turn for her. Instead, she goes full, I am smarter than you. Which strategically not ideal branding. Still, the logic in her responses throughout Roundtable was solid. Her delivery not so much. Once a emotion takes over people stop hearing your argument and start reacting to your tone, I think.

Ron tells her that she seems a bit all over the place. To me, it isn't that she's all over the place, meaning that she's just throwing out random names. She's being consistent. It's more that she's thinking too far ahead in this game, and you can't play traitor's chess if the board is on fire.

A bit of comic relief is when Maura tells Ron, you're a bit all over the place with my name. And that's when we hear about this theory of the light steps. Maura says she'll take that as a compliment. We love that, [00:21:00] Maura. And Ron says, you know, seems like some people are very, very defensive. And Maura's come back is . . . there's a difference: there's passion and there's defensive. At first, I wondered how she could say that and not seem defensive. Or you know, how someone could tell the difference how the other players could tell the difference. But looking at Tiffany with her lashing out, and then at Maura who says her piece and then basically lets it go, I think we can kind of see the difference that she was trying to point out. Of course, Tiffany is a faithful, so that may not be the best evidence for which one you want to try to get.

Finally, uh, Eric talks and he tells about hearing the laugh, and he says he is 99% sure (100% would be way too much, obviously) that it was Tiffany. He talks about his job as a musician and listening and all. This argument ends up convincing many, and I think It would've [00:22:00] convinced me as well. What was missing is people asking why he thought it was her laugh specifically. You're a musician. Great. Was it in B flat? Was it vibrato? Give me something I can dance to.

I wish Tiffany had thought to question it like that rather than the admittedly way more funny, "You might need another career".

Candiace does defend Tiffany a little bit again here and is pointing to Ron rather than Colton. I question her motive here, but I would think it looks good for her to try to defend a housewife which she's doing in retroactively for Porsha. The group thinks they're analyzing, but they're just reinforcing the loudest story, crowdsourced confirmation bias.

There are three names that get written down. Ron gets two votes. One from Candiace and one from Michael, who I [00:23:00] was surprised to see not focused on Yam Yam. Maybe because of what Candiace had said or maybe 'cause of what Tiffany had said the previous day. Maybe he's trying to play it a little more low key. Finally.

Yam Yam of course gets written down by Tiffany. It will be fun to see what happens after this because of her saying to him or about him, "If I'm banished, I hope you'll do" (to everyone else) "what needs to be done." Will this have an impact on Yam Yam? I am worried about him a little bit for next episode. Then Tiffany, of course, gets all 15 other votes. Towards the end, Colton says, "If I'm wrong, I'll wear that pie the rest of this game". Sir, you are currently bathing in pie. Tiffany says, "Yes, you will ... and Eric too". So now I'm also worried about Eric. I don't want him to get banished. When called to tell the truth of who she is, Tiffany says, "You know, you get what you deserve". I think people were then like, [00:24:00] "Oh, maybe we got her". But then they get an oh no, and she continues with, "You didn't deserve me because I'm a faithful". Great line, great exit.

Eric, of course is very sorry. Very sad. Candiace tries to comfort him while still leaving room for people to blame him with, I believe you heard what you think you heard.

Colton in a confessional, acknowledges that he made a mistake, but says, "I won't slow down though. I won't change my play style. I know it's bold and aggressive and probably not the best gameplay. That's just who I am". End quote. Translation, I might be wrong, but I'm going to be wrong confidently and loudly. Andthat is what makes me wonder if his big swing here was more that he just didn't like that Tiffany was also trying to take control, [00:25:00] maybe take over as a traitor hunter from him. I mean, he may have actually thought she might be a traitor with his weak evidence, but I wonder if he actually was more just not wanting to share the spotlight and control of the faithful. That seems more likely to me.

That does make me worry also for Natalie who said she was going to be an aggressive faithful. She doesn't seem to have been as vocal or forceful lately though. She seems to be letting others like Colton take the reins right now. So maybe she's noticed that and is trying to play more middle of the pack right now.

At night cap, Kristen is talking to Michael and she says, I'm starting to pay attention to who's putting everything in everybody's ears. Great idea. Very important to do. Always. You do want to see who it is. This [00:26:00] seems to be pointing to Colton. But then I worry about Kristen getting caught in some crossfire here.

Michael does say that he thinks it's one of the three hunks, as he calls them. Colton, Rob and Stephen. "They're just too swaggered out. One of them has to be." As I said before, even a broken clock is right twice a day. I'm curious about why he is throwing their names out as opposed to day one, gamers or housewives. And especially seems to be going away from Yam Yam or Ron. This looks suspicious to me or would look suspicious to me as a faithful seeing a different pattern from him.

Decisions, Decisions

Garrett: On the way to traitor Tower, Candiace talks about how it's taken a toll to betray people she has grown to care about. And again, I question her relationship with fellow housewife, [00:27:00] Caroline. When they're all together, they say they can't do Ron, Michael, or Yam Yam because of the heat on them, of course. As well as not Lisa, of course.

The others on the list for murder are Monét, Tara, Stephen, Maura, Johnny, and Yam Yam.

In their deliberations about Maura, they say it could be pinned on Ron. Rob says he thinks that's too. blatant / obvious a move. I also think he's wanting to keep her as a shield for himself because the other two have the other housewives, and he at least needs Maura on his side.

Rob brings up Stephen. I think this could potentially hurt him based on what Michael told Kristen. In any case, Rob says that it would seem random. Doesn't really leave a trace to them. But the other two talk about how he's good on missions, so they wanna keep him, they want to keep him to help earn money. I suppose at this point in the game with no worry about him [00:28:00] exposing any of them, it is a good argument.

Then they talk about Johnny and how it would seem random. That they can't quite pin him down. The ones that put him up for murder were the Michael, Natalie, and Stephen Group. So I think it could help to think about that. But they may not remember. Whoever gets murdered, people could potentially suspect people in the group who took away their shield might be trying to set them up or make sure they get murdered. But that's a lot to try to remember. In this case it would leave Michael in the hot seat still, so that's good for them, even if they didn't realize it at the time. Or if nobody remembers it won't do anything one way or the other.

And then they talk about Monét and Lisa learns about him suspecting her, the teaser from last time that I was totally wrong about. She wonders if anybody else heard it, but Candiace is not sure. He didn't that, you know, that he didn't say it to anybody else except her. [00:29:00] Rob talks about how Monét is good for missions ... similar to the reason against Stephen. And he's a great voice of reason which I think is good to have for players or for faithful to want. Except not for the traitors to want. I would want as much chaos as possible to point away from me. Although I suppose if there's too much chaos, it could come back to you. Also, Monét is really smart. Getting rid of Monét seems like a good choice for the traitors, although it would be a sad one for me, for us as the audience. However, it seems apparent that Rob also likes Monét and that, you know, he may be trying to have a shield there as well. Monét doesn't seem to be leading anything as far as who to vote for, so maybe keeping him is okay for now.

Then they talk about Tara. She's valuable to keep because she's not aware of anything going [00:30:00] on. Just kind of clueless as well as Candiace still needs her hair curler. They don't actually say this, but you know, we got that last time. But also I think it's safe to keep her as a shield.

They conclude with how none of these people are gamers or housewives. So any choice destroys their previous patterns and throws things into a bit of an uproar. Of course we don't get to know who they pick, but I'll give my predictions next.

Next Time On…

Garrett: First we get a preview of the next time, which as always is guiding us to make assumptions and getting us excited to watch.

We learn that Michael accuses Colton of being a traitor and someone else, or at least we are meant to believe it as a second person. So, we see him going after Colton, at least.

The title of next episode is "If you're going to come for me, I'll finish you". The editors are doing a great job with the titles. I was clearly wrong last time. The [00:31:00] title did give a big clue as to who was going to be banished. Do I think they would show us Michael and Colton and expect us to make the assumption that Colton will be getting rid of Michael for going after him, or perhaps the other way around? Yes.

But do I think that will happen even though I was wrong about the purpose in the title last time? Nope. Last time the clues were sprinkled throughout the episode. What is for sure though is that somebody's gonna get mad about getting come for. Maybe it is Colton or the other person that we see Michael potentially yelling at as a traitor and they don't show because they don't want it to be obvious for us. Could be Rob, since Michael already suspects him. Or perhaps it is Yam Yam or Ron who have been on people's lists who try to get revenge. Could even be Colton going after Kristen. All possibilities.

Finally, it sounds like the [00:32:00] mission they're going to do is going to offer chances to stop that night's murder. They all have to work together though, so who knows if it will work.

My Predictions

Garrett: All right, so now to my predictions.

My first prediction is for who will be murdered. Stephen is the smarter move. Johnny is the easier move. I think they will take the easy move.

My guess about whether the group stops the murder is no, they will not.

And I believe the banished one will be Michael, not because of Colton though. Michael is the one who would say something like the title, but then have it totally backfire against him.

All right. Finally, we have a couple other reality shows coming up that we could start tackling. We're so far behind on Traitors, it may not matter but it would be nice to get some others on our list that you would be interested in.

So we have Love Is Blind, which will have [00:33:00] already started coming out before I release this podcast episode. Then towards the end of February is Survivor, and then middle of March is the Bachelorette, starring the Secret Lives of Mormon Wives' Taylor.

So my experience and understanding of that show as well as the Bachelor franchise of Utah and of Mormonism would be fun to explore. I definitely will be watching all of those, but is there one that you would like to know more about or have me and maybe my co-host discuss and break down strategy and psychology of what's going on?

Great. Join us on the socials, comment, like, subscribe and all the things. That's it for today, and that's Checkmate.

Voiceover: Wanna keep the conversation going, join us on social media and tell us how you would play it.